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| Claire Gothard ('19) |
I recently had the opportunity to travel to the Student Conference on US Affairs at West Point. At the conference, I participated in a roundtable on the Middle East and North Africa. The following policy recommendations were the product of those conversations and summarized in our policy paper.
Background
On the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen has recently been established as a critical case study to understand the Middle Eastern political dynamics and effects of US regional policy decisions. Civil war began in 2015 when the Houthis, a group of Shi’a revolutionaries, took the capital city of Sana’a and displaced the Hadi regime. Since that March, the country has been plagued by the largest cholera outbreak in the world, resource shortages, and continued violence leaving over 14 million people at risk of starvation and 2 million displaced.
In response to the civil war, Saudi Arabia has formed a coalition of Arab states to combat Houthi influence. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are the two biggest players in this coalition. The United States has strong military ties with both nations specifically for cooperative regional efforts to combat extremism. However, the United States has stayed largely out of the Yemini conflict as Saudi Arabia initiated the blockade and military strikes. Though Iran denies supplying arms to Houthi rebels, the US has intercepted ships headed to Yemen with suspected Iranian arms. In response, Saudi Arabia is enforcing a strict blockade of all imports and exports to and from Yemen. The cutting off from aid and other resources has created a humanitarian crisis and exaggerated the effects of civil war.
Why it matters?
This crisis relates to American interests in the region due to a few key factors related to Yemeni location, internal strife, and proxy role.
Yemen lies in a strategically critical location for global trade. Its position on the Bab Al-Mandab—the passage that serves as the main conduit through the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal – places all international oil exports to the West at risk. 4.8 million barrels flow through Bab al-Mandab every day, of which 2.8 million barrels are destined for Europe and beyond. Safety concerns have intermittently prompted Saudi Arabia to suspend oil shipments through the strait independent from the blockade of Yemen.
Internally, Yemen has become a safe-haven for terrorist networks. Al-Qaeda controls roughly a quarter of the country’s territory in the center-east. While their control has decreased due to action taken by the Saudi-led coalition, the terrorist network continues to thrive amidst the political chaos via underground networks. The United States has a vested interest in countering violent extremism globally and situations like Yemen’s civil war can act as hotbeds for recruitment.
The conflict also acts as a critical proxy theater for Iran and Saudi Arabia’s contentious relationship. This tension affects regional crises like Syria and directs much of the respective states’ foreign policy decisions . Ameliorating Yemen’s conflict will reduce hostilities between the two powers and further remove one of Iran’s many regional arenas of intervention. Iran regularly backs the Houthi rebels against Saudi forces, so stabilizing the country would remove the necessity of Iran’s military and economic support.
While Yemen contributes little to the current international refugee crisis, further instability in Yemen may in time result in a greater presence of Yemeni refugees streaming over the borders of U.S.-allied countries. Solving the conflict as quickly as possible will mitigate the long-term flow of refugees.
What to do?
The largest barrier to humanitarian aid is the blockade. In order to prevent mass famine, continued spread of cholera, and destabilization of the population, humanitarian supplies and aid must enter the country immediately. The United States ought to leverage its intelligence production and aerial refueling assistance to the Saudis in order to negotiate an easing of restrictions to the blockade. Stabilizing quality of life for the civilian population will dissuade at-risk parties from seeking solace from terrorist networks. The U.S. State Department should engage in private negotiations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to ease the blockade to provide humanitarian aid to Yemen.
The Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), a coalition of 33 nations including the United States, established a Maritime Security Transit Corridor (MSTC) in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in order to end the flow of weapons in and out of Yemen. With the recommendation to ease the Saudi blockade, the proposed bolstering of the MSTC forces will allow for humanitarian aid to enter the country. The U.S. Navy should supply an additional ship to the CMF’s Maritime Security Transit Corridor and request additional ships from other members of the CMF in an effort to enforce the U.N. arms embargo and provide humanitarian aid.
Restricting the access to weapons and providing aid to people at risk radicalization is vital to American interests; however, maintaining the security of the straight is imperative to promotion of global free trade. The operation of the Bab al-Mandab is essential to the United States’ economic interests. Blockage of this strategic waterway will drive up energy costs. The continued targeting of commercial shipping vessels will have far reaching effects. A strong US military presence in Bab al-Mandeb will ensure the safety and security of the goods and humanitarian aid passing through the strait.
Djibouti, the country opposite to Yemen on the Bab El-Mandeb, is developing as a strategic interest area due to the proximity to the straight and the growing Chinese influence. As a part of China’s Belt and Road initiative, the have started constructing a port in the coastal nation. Many believe the situation harkens to the Chinese “debt trap” from Sri Lanka, in which they had to sign over port rights to China to repay debts. US Naval Base Lemonnier in Djibouti is crucial to maintaining the continuity and security of global trade through the strait Bab al Mandab, but also balancing power in the region. The US should bolster the naval base in Djibouti to protect trade and American influence.
This crisis is an opportunity to deescalate a violent situation and promote American influence and regional interests. These are the first steps in managing the crisis in Yemen. Looking forward, future policies need to address the sustainability of Yemeni resources and stability in the region.
Claire Gothard, of Louisville, Ky., is a member of the McConnell Scholar Class of 2019. She studies economics, political science, international business and Middle East and Islamic studies at the University of Louisville.