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| Justin Brandt University of Louisville |
By Justin Brandt, Class of 2013
Before my current study abroad trip to China, I had never really heard of this island unless I noticed a "Made in Taiwan" tag on toys or clothes. I naively assumed Taiwan was just another Southeast Asian country benefitting from the economic development that has been occurring in that region of the world.
First of all, I have since learned that I was wrong in assuming it was a country at all (even though it has its own President, passport, and belongs to the World Trade Organization). But my much bigger mistake was misunderstanding its importance and relevance to the world.
Taiwan is small island about 100 miles (the distance from my hometown of Fort Thomas to Louisville, Ky.) off the south east coast of China. It has been controlled by the Ming Dynasty, the Dutch, and Japan. In 1949, the Chinese nationalist party, led by Chiang Kai Shek, escaped to the island with about 2 million people — a massive 33% increase to the 6 million inhabitants at the time. This party (KMT) ruled the area with martial law until 1986.
The Taiwanese have since been living in a fully functional democratic government of political parties, separate branches, and economic freedom. It has experienced an average voter turnout of around 75% for 20 years (greater than the U.S). Its democratization should be considered a great success and is perhaps the reason why the United States has become one of her strongest allies.
Since then, there has been a growing demand in Taiwan to shed its quasi-independent existence with the Republic of China and become a completely separate country. This has been spearheaded by the Taiwanese Independence Movement and some members of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), one of the two major parties within the government. Two Taiwanese presidents have called for "two-states" and claimed that "Taiwan is already its own country."
The Chinese government is vehemently opposed to Taiwan independence. It has increasingly made strong efforts to establish "One-China" by increasing the military budget, spreading Taiwan reunification propaganda, and facilitating economic integration across the Taiwan Strait. Chinese presidents have threatened to use military force if Taiwan ever declared independence.
When I asked our Chinese classmates about this issue, they responded with, "Taiwan belongs to China."
Chinese rulers are too afraid to seem weak on Taiwan and are afraid its independence will lead to complete international and domestic embarrassment. Despite its small wealth and population (relative to China), Chinese rulers fear that Taiwan's separation could start a domino effect of independence movements for other regions across China (such as Tibet, Macao, Hong Kong, and Mongolian Regions). This would significantly affect internal stability and significantly damage its geographic assets and economic growth.
If Taiwan declares independence and China's equipped People's Liberation Army (PLA) invades, the United States may be compelled to intervene on Taiwan's behalf. Not only would many advocate the U.S. support of "brave little David of a democracy standing up to the Communist Goliath," but our previous arms sales to Taiwan, statements by previous presidents, and formidable Taiwanese lobbying organizations link us to their cause. Most pervasive is the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which is just short of a formal defense treaty. The U.S. further demonstrated this commitment during the 1995-1996 "Taiwan Strait Crisis" by deploying air force battle groups to the region when the CCP responded to Taiwan's President's (Lee Teng-hui) pro-liberation comments with missile exercises near the island.
Since then, some U.S. diplomats have shifted their approach toward Taiwan. Seeking a peaceful solution, many have shifted from our country's historic obligation as the "world's police force."
Either way, after reading and hearing lectures about Taiwan, I am definitely much more aware of this very interesting and dangerous situation. If the players at hand don't play their cards right we could have a global catastrophe on our hands. Neither the United States nor China — nor the world — can afford a war right now. It's crazy, and frankly scary, to believe that a minority party on an island about the size of New Jersey could start it.
Justin Brandt, from Ft. Thomas, Ky., is a senior McConnell Scholar at the University of Louisville and is currently studying in the People's Republic of China. He is majoring in political science and psychology.