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| Aaron Vance Class of 2017 |
While our journey in China is drawing to a close, and it can easily be said that I have much to write on the experience alone, I want to take this blog and turn it outwards to the world of international relations. Following a seminar I shared with my fellow classmates and Dr. Hua over Ch. 5 of our book, Getting the Triangle Straight: Managing China-Japan-US Relations, I want to return to the idea of the Thucydides Trap. Andrew Oros, writing the chapter a few years before Graham Allison’s publication of his essay on Thucydides Trap conjures a similar situation that focuses on the rise of a great power in a system that has only one major stable power. And, while it is easy to put the pieces together and draw a conclusion from a simple equation, it is much more evident that such thinking may not hold true in the 21st century; specifically between Sino-American relations.
Noting that there is much to be said on the history of stable-power and rising power relations, I am very hesitant to cast this as anything but the supplement to the rule, especially in the 21st century. Between Oros and Allison, real power politics makes the case evident for the likelihood of tension between the two types of states, America being the stable hegemon, and China being the rising one. The point being that this kind of relationship has existed for millennia since the days of Thucydides recounting the Peloponnesian War through the Crimean and World Wars. Much like a stable Athens had to fight a rising Sparta and the hegemony of various European nations would be challenged by a belligerent rising Germany, much of the same should be expected from China by the United States. And whether that takes the form of war or not, is where the United States must get ahead of the curve and cast it’s own prerogatives.
While I agree that there will be tensions amongst the two states, this doesn’t seem to be out of the ordinary for the United States nor any other nation, or the relationship shared between any states. National interests don’t always align and sometimes they cause turmoil or even a chilling effect, both of which have been seen in the 20th century. However, in the 21st century I am hard pressed to believe that such a simple dynamic is the key to understanding forthcoming Sino-American relations or the relations shared between any stable power and a rising one in even debating regional hegemony. Much more the constructivist than the realist, I advise that those that observe such a relationship consider the bigger picture. While not necessarily aligned with our governmental principles, Chinese trade accounts for a significant portion of our GDP and shares a seemingly positive outlook on the U.S.: a sentiment not captured between previous states on the brink of being captured in the Thucydides Trap. And having now traveled in China, the influence of America is much greater than I would think many Americans believe it to be.
Aaron Vance is a senior McConnell Scholar studying political science, economics and anthropology at the University of Louisville.