.png)
This fall, I had the opportunity to attend a student conference at the United States Air Force Academy alongside two fellow McConnell Scholars, a cohort of USAFA Cadets, and a select group of international affairs-minded college students from across the country – our challenge: identify and analyze the actions of China in the 21st century. For three days, we roamed the halls and rooms in Colorado Springs, broken into over a dozen various groups ranging from Chinese Culture & Ideology to Emerging Technologies. Every aspect of the Chinese State, the Chinese Communist Party, and the Chinese relationship with the United States was examined as we strove to further understand the rising superpower. We were asked to assume the roles of subject matter experts, to determine what course our nations will take – should we continue our recent policy of strategic competition? Is there room to shift towards an era of cooperation? Or has Thucydides’ Trap been set, tensions risen too high, and conflict become the only path? I would argue that Xi Xinping will not divert from his path of aggressiveness in the later years of his life. The stakes are becoming higher and the theaters of combat have only become more diverse. As the US continues to enact protective trade policies against the aggressive CCP, the race for world Lithium rises, information warfare continues to expand, and conflicts around the world arise, the US will have to continue to prepare for the worst-case scenario.
The CHIPS Act was a clear effort by the United States Congress to protect American high technology manufacturing. While many of the American semiconductor factories may not be complete for years as the $52.7 billion package begins to take effect, competition in this industry will only increase. However, the competition over the manufacturing may not be nearly as consequential as the battle for the supply – namely the world’s lithium, nickel and cobalt.
Back in September, the McConnell Center hosted Australian Ambassador to the United States Kevin Rudd. Ambassador Rudd spoke at length on his interactions with the Chinese State as well as Chinese investment companies working to purchase lithium mines in Australia, one of the world’s largest producers of lithium. The United States maintains one of the world’s largest lithium reserves, but as long as our mining operations remain well behind those of China, we must rely on strong allies like Australia to bolster our emerging industries.
With the Chinese military continuing to increase its operations in the South China Sea and Xi Jinping’s personal commitment to the One China policy, the invasion of Taiwan feels more like an when than an if. The moment could not be more decisive. With the backdrop of the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine and the war following Hamas’ attack on Israel, the resolve of the United States and the Western world at large faces its greatest challenge since the end of the Cold War. If China feels the United States flinch, they may move swiftly. Were the People’s Liberation Army to move on Taiwan tomorrow, a difficult scenario would play out. Will the US act? The Taiwan Relations Act puts that decision squarely in the hands of Congress – a process that may be anything but swift. If not, how long can Taiwan hold out? With most of our semiconductor capabilities invested on the island, we may have to respond. Then what? Will our allies join us, or will we be forced to fight in the South China Sea while we supply the Ukrainian Army simultaneously? Maybe, as Taiwanese intelligence has maintained, the PLA will not be prepared for invasion until 2027. The United States cannot be a nation caught on its back foot. Despite the insults of our enemies, the doubt of our allies, or the debates within our own borders, we stand as the beacon of democracy that the free world looks to when darkness encroaches.
This time, that darkness comes in the form of an ancient dragon, enraged by a century of attacks by the West and a civil war that brought it to its knees. As the Dragon roars, we can only wait and see if it spews fire or ice.