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| (from left) McConnell Scholars MeghanWaters, Jason Jewell and Haque listen as Givens speaks as part of the Local Leader series. |
Brigadier General Rob Givens came to speak with us on a Tuesday morning in February about “The National Security Environment of the 21st Century.” Much like Lt. General Josiah Bunting III and other military speakers we have had in the past, General Givens was widely knowledgeable and articulated complex ideas in a smooth way. He was humble and very casually cited Thucydides and his time running the Middle East air campaign. Most interesting, though, was his prediction of what warfare would look like in the next century.
Rather than emulating twentieth century warfare (i.e. similar to World War I and World War II) he believes it will look much more like the 19th century. In that era there were brief, intense skirmishes between European powers like Prussia. There were high numbers of casualties per day, but conflicts lasted a few weeks or less so overall body counts were low. During this time the various warring states were not willing to risk the high tolls that were seen in the 21st century.
He believes this style will adapt itself to the modern security landscape. Rather than focused in Europe, the modern conflict would take place in the Pacific Theatre with China and the United States as primary warring agents. The conflict would most likely take place off the coast of China in various locations. It would not be an imperial conflict, but one that dealt with spheres of influence. China has shown little indication that it would take any of the areas, but would not want the US to hold power or influence near it. As a result it would be willing to have these short contests of power. The United States, worn from long periods of warfare, would be in a similar position.
I thought this was a significantly more interesting and nuanced interpretation of future warfare than other predictions I have heard. His interpretation was supported by a medley of personal experience, anecdotes, and intensive study. I hope to have this type of systemic analysis of policy as I examine issues in China this summer.
Arsh Haque, of Elizabethtown, Ky., is a junior McConnell Scholar at the University of Louisville studying political science and creative writing.