China’s Urban Future: Foreseeing Economic and Political Trouble

Diana Lalata
Class of 2016

In Dr. Richardson Dilworth’s lecture on “China’s Urban Future,” I expected to be presented with spectacular photos of the high-rise skyscrapers and architectural genius in China’s megacities and positive outlooks for the country’s booming economy. Instead, Dr. Dilworth displayed eerie photos of Chinese “ghost towns” with housing units that remained largely unoccupied as a result of the government’s overestimation of its residential need and surprising graphs on the consequential rising private debt in China. He went on to explain that this may cause a substantial issue for the nation’s economy. I attended the lecture with little knowledge about the negative economic implications of urbanization, and left with a curiosity to learn not only more about a possible impending economic crisis, but also the political trouble that China could face in the near future.

The urban population in China has raised from 26% of the country’s total population in 1990 to 56% in 2016. With more people moving from rural areas to urban city centers, China’s government has responded positively by providing even more incentives for individuals wishing to migrate (see: Reform of China’s “hukou system” to promote urban household registration) and seeking to meet the expected housing needs for migrants. The Chinese government views urbanization as an opportunity for economic growth, while others view the movement with more skepticism.

In addition to the rising private debt, which could greatly stifle China’s economic growth, Dr. Dilworth warns of Xi Jinping’s historically repressive regime. As political power increases in cities, more autonomy is given to the federal government. Consequently, political representation inevitably decreases in China’s smaller cities and towns, which can lead to potential political turmoil under a stronger and more repressive regime. This link between urbanization and more federal control is explained by Dr. Dilworth’s example of Shanghai, an ever-growing megacity and powerful ally for a past Chinese president.

Although urbanization seems to many as a move in the right direction to meet China’s goal of economic development, the reality of its economy and the dangers of the political consequences are concerns to note when studying this complex phenomenon. I am interested to learn more about Dr. Dilworth’s research on urban development and am even more excited to collect my own observations while studying in three of China’s largest cities: Shanghai, Xi’an, and Beijing.

Diana Lalata is a junior McConnell Scholar at the University of Louisville studying political science, English, Spanish, and social change.